Monday, 1 January 2024: The Magic Millions 3yo Guineas picture became a bit clearer on a good day at Doomben.

CIFRADO winning the AQUIS STALLIONS BRC SIRES' PRODUCE STAKES

Typically, the Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate (1350m) is a good pointer to the Magic Millions 3yo Guineas.

Fashion Legend  did the double last year, as did Boomsara  in 2018 and Pierata  in 2017, and Cifrado  staked his claim with a powerful win from last.

He's already shown good talent having won the Group 2 BRC Sires Produce (1400m) as a two-year-old and while not back to his absolute best on Saturday, the Guineas looks awfully thin this year.

Cifrado ran to 103 on Saturday, six pounds off his 109 Sires' peak, with Chrysaor  running to 101 first up from a spell, seven pounds off his 108 peak which came when winning the Group 2 Callandar-Presnell (1600m) before a spell.

Compared to previous years, Cifrado rates well down on a typical Vo Rogue winner.

The five-year winning average for the race is 109.6, with the likes of Alligator Blood  (114) and Pierata and Boomsara (111) bumping that average up. Even still, Cifrado is a couple of pounds below last year's winner Fashion Legend (105) who then ran to just 109 to win the Guineas at 20-1.

On face value, this year's Vo Rogue looks like a shaky piece of form. The horse to take out of it is probably Chrysaor seeing as he was first up from a spell and has run close enough to his peak here to suggest he's more than capable of running to that 108 or beyond in the Guineas.

The market for the Guineas reflects the lower rating Vo Rogue in my opinion, with Cifrado, Chrysaor and Abounding all around the $7-8 mark.

Abounding  missed the Vo Rogue but is rated 101 off her win in the Listed Gold Edition Plate (1200m), effectively marking her 105 given her 2kg allowance at weight-for-age. My knock with her would be the rise to 1400m and that she's now run between 99-101 in her past six starts, suggesting she might have levelled out.

Others in the market have the ratings to be right there on the day with Royal Tribute  a smart winner of the Gosford Guineas first up. He's got plenty of scope to improve and does bring some of the better three-year-old form last preparation. 1400m would be a query for him too but you do have Waterhouse & Bott on your side.

If I had to pick one right now it'd be Chrysaor who probably has more improvement to come and will relish 1400m, but it wouldn't shock to see something completely left of field bob up at a price.