Monday, 11 December 2023: Dom To Shoot upstaged Zaaki in the Northerly as we also look ahead to the Perth Cup.

DOM TO SHOOT winning the Mornington Guineas at Mornington in Australia.

Zaaki Swansong?

Dom To Shoot  turned over Zaaki  in Saturday's Group 1 Northerly Stakes (1800m) at Ascot, running down the multiple Group 1 winner in the shadows of the post to win narrowly.

He was one of the best runs in the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m), charging home into third and has only had to run one pound better to win on Saturday.

His rating of 114 is well below the winning standard for this race. In the past 20 years, only four horses have rated equal to or lower than Dom To Shoot, and two of those were three-year-old fillies in Kay Cee  and Perfect Reflection .

The others were three-year-old Megatic  (114) in 2007 and Early Express  (111) in 2005, then run as the time-honoured Fruit 'N' Veg Stakes.

Given a fantastic ride from barrier 1 by first-time Group 1 winning jockey Jarrad Noske , he was able to nail Zaaki on the line, who has run below 118 for the second time in just 13 starts.

Zaaki hasn't run poorly by any means but one has to wonder if this will be the last we see of him. An interrupted preparation, a trip to Perth in Summer, it almost felt like win or lose this might be the last time we see him but they'll let the dust settle and see where he's at next year.

The three-year-olds were good again, Zipaway  going awfully close in third and A Lot Of Good Men  only 1.4 lengths away in fifth.

Zipaway improved four pounds (110>114) on his WA Guineas win while A Lot Of Good Men improved 3 (108>111). I noted during the week the level of improvement required for a three-year-old to win the Northerly Stakes. Of the past six to do so, the three-year-olds had improved a minimum of 5 pounds from their previous start. If Zipaway had done so, he'd have just won. Something to keep in mind for next year perhaps.

Originally Dom To Shoot was a 1400-1600m horse, famous of course for winning the Mornington Guineas in 2021 however he did end up running in the Group 2 Perth Cup (2400m) earlier this year having also run in the Northerly.

His rating of 111 in last year's Northerly (just 3 pounds off his win this year) dipped significantly when stepping to 2100m and again to 2400m so I'd have to think he won't go down that path again but you never know.

A few on a Perth Cup path from Saturday include Marocchino , Zoumon  and Casino Seventeen .

Next start over 2100m in the Ted Van Heemst Stakes will tell us more where they are likely to meet Black Fantasy , who won the Listed Towton Cup running to 102 on Saturday.

He led and found enough when looking in trouble under Pike to score at $1.80 and is certainly trending the right way. He was behind Casino Seventeen when they met two back but was 1500m up to 2100m and has more upside as a stayer.

The Ted Van Heemst might not be his race at weight-for-age but down in the weights in the Perth Cup, he's certainly going to be a big chance.