Wednesday, 24 July 2019:
Australia will finish sixth on the medal table at next year's Tokyo Olympics, a data-crunching company forecasts.
Gracenote predicts Australia will win 43 medals in Tokyo - 13 gold, 15 silver and 15 bronze.
Such a result would be a vast improvement from the Rio 2016 Games when Australia collected 29 medals (eight golds, 11 silver and 10 bronze) to finish 10th.
Gracenote, which examines individual and team results in previous Olympics, world championships and world cups to make its forecasts, predicts the United States will top the table for a seventh consecutive Olympics, winning 126 medals, including 51 golds.
They also tip China to come second with 81 medals and host national Japan third with 67 medals, followed by Russia (65 medals).
The data collators forecast Australia to tie with Great Britain on 43 medals, but for the Brits to take fifth spot by winning two more gold than Australia.
"Australia has been eclipsed by Great Britain at each of the last two Summer Games and have not finished ahead of them since 2004," the company said in their forecast which was released a year before the opening of the Tokyo Olympics.
"Australia's drop in performance at the last two Summer Olympics was mainly due to sub-par results in swimming.
"If Australia is to challenge for a top-five spot on the medal table, success in swimming competitions needs to rise up to the levels achieved from 2000 to 2008."
The prediction comes as the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) changes tack by not publicly setting any medal target for the Tokyo Games.
The AOC had previously set a top-five finish as an aspirational target but will not make any future forecasts, believing it placed undue pressure on athletes.
