AFL finals week three preview panel

Thursday, 20 September 2018:

ALEX RANCE, DUSTIN MARTIN and BRANDON ELLIS of the Tigers run during a Richmond Tigers AFL training session at Punt Road Oval in Melbourne, Australia.
ALEX RANCE, DUSTIN MARTIN and BRANDON ELLIS of the Tigers run during a Richmond Tigers AFL training session at Punt Road Oval in Melbourne, Australia.


Preview of week three of the AFL finals (all times AEST):

FRIDAY, September 21

First Preliminary Final

Richmond v Collingwood at the MCG 7.50pm

Head to head: Tigers 90 Magpies 117 Drawn 1

Last clash: Round 19, 2018: Tigers 16.9 (105) bt Magpies 12.5 (77) at the MCG

Last final: Grand final, 1980: Tigers 23.21 (159) bt Magpies 9.24 (78) at the MCG

TAB Sportsbet: Tigers $1.38 Magpies $3.15

BetEasy: Tigers $1.38 Magpies $3.15

Talk about a dream fixture. A full house will pack out the MCG to watch these two arch rivals slug it out. Richmond will start as hot favourites to extend their MCG winning run to a record 23 matches. But doubts have surfaced about the fitness of star midfielder Dustin Martin all week, and it will be interesting to see whether the Brownlow Medallist is hampered by the severe cork he has been struggling to overcome. The Tigers are fresh following a week off, while Collingwood have only had a six-day break since their gritty win over GWS. The Magpies booted an inaccurate 9.15 (69) in that game, and they can't afford another wayward display against the ruthless Tigers. Richmond will enter the match having played just one match in the past 26 days - a prolonged rest that has worked against sides in the past.

Key: Midfield battle. The Tigers boast a glut of match-winners through the middle, but the likes of Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, and Dion Prestia will have to make do with scraps from the ruck. Magpies ruckman Brodie Grundy is in supreme form, and is likely to dominate Toby Nankervis. If Collingwood's on-ball division can't make the most of that advantage, it will be hard to see how the Magpies can win. Both sides go in with unchanged line-ups.

Tip: Tigers by 31 points

SATURDAY, September 22

Second Preliminary Final

West Coast v Melbourne at Optus Stadium, 3.20pm

Head to head: Eagles 33 Demons 17 Drawn 0

Last clash: Round 22, 2018: Demons 16.12 (108) bt Eagles 14.7 (91) at Optus Stadium

Last final: Preliminary final, 1994: Eagles 16.21 (117) bt Demons 8.4 (52) at the WACA

TAB Sportsbet: Eagles $1.85 Demons $2

BetEasy: Eagles $1.80 Demons $2.05

Can Melbourne keep the fairytale going? The Demons have become one of the AFL's most exciting teams to watch this year, and will enter this clash full of confidence after beating West Coast in Perth just five weeks ago. However, the Eagles were missing star forward Josh Kennedy that day, with fellow spearhead Jack Darling ruled out early in the match with concussion. Both Darling and Kennedy are now back up and firing, and West Coast hope a heaving home crowd will get them over the line. Melbourne are the highest scoring team in the competition, but West Coast have the attacking weapons to match them if the game turns into a shootout. The loss of Brad Sheppard to a hamstring injury is a big blow to the Eagles, but Will Schofield is more than a capable replacement. The Demons axed first-year speedster Bayley Fritsch so they could recall defender Joel Smith.

Key: Ruck battle. If Eagles duo Scott Lycett and Nathan Vardy can come close to breaking even with Max Gawn, then West Coast will be well on the path to victory. Gawn monstered Lycett last month, and a repeat effort would severely limit the supply to West Coast's star-studded forward line.

Tip: Eagles by 11 points.






AAP